The demographic challenges facing Quebec are becoming increasingly significant in the ongoing discussions about its sovereignty.
Consider this: when the Parti Québécois (PQ) first gained power in 1976, they promised a referendum on sovereignty, and Quebec represented a substantial 27.2 percent of Canada’s total population. However, during the PQ’s initial term, over 100,000 anglophones left Quebec, marking the beginning of a trend that continued following the 1980 referendum, in which Quebeckers chose to remain part of Canada.
Fast forward to the 1995 referendum, which occurred after the PQ regained power the year before; Quebec’s share of the Canadian population had already decreased to 24.7 percent. Although the outflow of anglophones reduced somewhat after this vote, Quebec still experienced a slower population growth compared to provinces like Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia, primarily due to lower immigration rates.
Today, Quebec accounts for approximately 21.6 percent of Canada’s population, and without a third referendum looming, predictions indicate that this percentage could diminish further in the upcoming years. The pressing question remains: just how much will it drop?
According to the latest demographic projections from Statistics Canada, Quebec's population share is anticipated to decrease to only 18.6 percent of the national total by 2050, potentially dipping below the crucial 20 percent mark by the late 2030s. These projections rely on a baseline medium-growth scenario for Canada’s overall population.
These estimates align with findings from a recent study conducted by Desjardins Group economists Sonny Scarfone and Hendrix Vachon. Their analysis presents a concerning outlook for Quebec's economy, predicting challenges due to a shrinking labor market and an increasing dependency ratio, as the number of residents over the age of 65 rises sharply.
Scarfone and Vachon caution that "with a stagnant working-age population and a declining labor force participation rate, the tax burden on workers is likely to increase, while tax revenue growth will lag behind government spending." They emphasize that without significant changes in productivity, fiscal policy, or public services, maintaining the current fiscal framework may become increasingly difficult in the medium to long term.
This demographic decline creates a complex dilemma for the PQ, which is committed to advocating for another referendum should it emerge victorious in this fall’s provincial election. The argument for separation has gained traction, rooted in the notion that Quebec's waning share of the national population signals a loss of political power within the Canadian federation.
To illustrate, by 2050, the combined populations of Alberta and British Columbia are projected to reach 14 million, an increase from about 10.7 million today, while Quebec's population is expected to stagnate around 9 million. As the House of Commons expands to reflect the growing national populace, Quebec will inevitably see its representation in federal parliament diminish, leading to enhanced influence from Western Canada.
Proponents of sovereignty argue that preserving Quebec's unique identity will become even more challenging amidst the multicultural values of English Canada and the ongoing efforts to limit Quebec’s demands for greater autonomy within the federation.
In contrast, federalists might contend that the demographic decline stems from the intentional policies of nationalist governments that have curtailed immigration, thus threatening Quebec's capacity to uphold its cultural institutions and robust social programs. The Coalition Avenir Québec government has significantly reduced the number of permanent residents slated to be admitted over the next three years to just 45,000 annually, which is less than 12 percent of the national total. They have also dismantled a program that expedited the transition of temporary foreign workers and international students into permanent residency, opting instead for a points-based system that only accepts applications through invitations.
While this new system has merits, such as prioritizing skilled labor with substantial work experience and French language proficiency, it has left many temporary residents in precarious situations. Thousands of individuals hoping for permanent residency have seen their aspirations dashed as the application process has been limited to a mere 2,500 submissions per month.
Additionally, the PQ has pledged to further reduce immigration levels if they win the next election. Although this may alleviate the province's immediate housing crisis, it risks giving rise to far-reaching complications.
Currently, Quebec boasts the lowest unemployment rate among Canadian provinces at 5.4 percent, and experts project it could fall to 4 percent or lower later in this decade, largely driven by policies aimed at decreasing the number of temporary residents.
While this might initially seem advantageous, Scarfone and Vachon warn that it could spell trouble for Quebec's economic health. They state, "This situation presents significant hurdles for economic growth, the provincial budget, and the sustainability of public services in the long run."
Ultimately, these demographic shifts could prove to be a significant vulnerability for Quebec's sovereigntists as they navigate the complex landscape of provincial identity and political power.
